2025 Retirement Market Outlook

Retirement industry at a crossroads

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Introduction

Evolving default investment options. Increasing plan adoption of retirement income solutions. Growing momentum for emergency savings programs. These are the major trends we see influencing the U.S. retirement industry in 2025. What challenges and opportunities will they bring?

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      Our 2025 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook highlights many of the key challenges and opportunities in today’s defined contribution retirement plan landscape. And we offer some valuable insights on how to move forward.

      Hello. I’m Michael Davis, head of Global Retirement Strategy at T. Rowe Price.

      We’re pleased to present our 2025 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook, “Retirement industry is at a crossroads.”

      In this year’s edition, we offer insights on three key areas that we expect to gain attention in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace:

      • First, evolving target date and default investment options;
      • Second, increasing adoption of retirement income solutions; and
      • Third, the growing momentum for emergency savings programs.

      Additionally, we look ahead at some key legislative and regulatory themes that are likely to impact the retirement landscape in the coming years.

      Qualified default investment alternatives, or QDIAs, transformed retirement plan investing, with target date strategies gaining prominence due in part to their automated, age-based asset allocation.

      More recently, there’s growing interest for these strategies to incorporate blend investment approaches. These blend strategies combine both active and passive elements to help enhance cost efficiency while leveraging the potential benefits of active security selection.

      We’re also seeing greater interest in collective investment trusts, or CITs, an increasingly popular investment vehicle that often provides lower costs and greater investment flexibility to target date investors.

      And personalized managed accounts are getting more traction, especially as more participants approach retirement.

      Additionally, we have seen a flurry of new retirement income products over the past year.

      Overall data shows increasing interest among plan sponsors in retaining retirees in their retirement plans postretirement. And many are proactively inquiring about the landscape of retirement income products and services. 

      Consultants and advisors will continue to be essential in helping plan sponsors select products and services best suited to their plans.

      Finally, there’s growing recognition of the importance of overall financial wellness, and emergency savings is a central element of that discussion.

      Provisions in the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 have bolstered employer-sponsored emergency savings programs, introducing new solutions to participants.

      And we expect to see more conversations on the adoption both of in-plan and out-of-plan emergency savings solutions.

      Looking ahead, we outline some key legislative and regulatory themes that could impact the retirement landscape in the coming years, including tax reform, enhancements in SECURE 2.0, litigation reform, and more.

      We’re excited to present our 2025 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook, and I encourage you to download the full report at troweprice.com for more detailed information on these and other topics.

      Thank you.

      1. Evolving QDIAs
      2. Retirement Income
      3. Emergency Savings
      4. Policy Overview

      Evolution of target date solutions and QDIAs

      What’s happened?

      Target date strategies dominate as default plan investments.

      • $3.8 trillion target date assets as of June 30, 20241

      What’s next?

      Cost-efficient target date collective investment trusts (CITs) continue to gain market share over mutual funds, and demand is increasing for active/passive blends.

      • 51% of target date assets are in CITs1
      • 12% three-year compounded annual growth in assets for blend versus 10% for passive and 4% for active2

      What to keep an eye on

      Managed accounts appear poised for future growth, especially as participants near retirement and seek customized solutions that can incorporate individual financial circumstances.

      Retirement income universe expands, plan adoption on the horizon

      What’s happened?

      The SECURE Acts of 2019 and 2022 spurred the creation of innovative retirement income products to support retirees who stay in plan.

      What’s next?

      More plan sponsors are taking a stance on retirement income.3

      • 68% drop in plan sponsors with no stated opinion on in-plan solutions (from 59% in 2021 to 19% in 2024)
      • 125% increase in plan sponsors offering or planning to add in-plan solutions (from 8% in 2021 to 18% in 2024)

      What to keep an eye on

      Diverse solutions demand careful evaluation. Industry professionals can help plan sponsors analyze and evaluate options to find the best fit for their participants.

      A new era for emergency savings after SECURE 2.0

      What’s happened?

      SECURE 2.0 introduced new provisions for emergency savings, a key element of financial wellness.

      What’s next?

      Emergency savings solutions are expected to gain traction over the next three to five years. Among advisors and consultants:3

      • 70% of advisors and consultants anticipate a rise in in‑plan solutions
      • 52% expect an increase in out‑of‑plan solutions

      What to keep an eye on

      With SECURE 2.0, plan sponsors have new opportunities and new incentives to enhance workplace emergency savings and help support employees' financial well-being.

      Video

      2025 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook
      Evolution of Target Date Solutions and QDIAs

      Qualified default investment alternatives, target date solutions, collective investment trusts, and managed accounts are transforming retirement investing in defined contribution plans.

      By  Wyatt Lee, CFA®, Kathryn Farrell, CFA®
      Video

      2025 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook
      Retirement Income Universe Expands, Plan Adoption on the Horizon

      As the industry creates new and innovative retirement income products, more plan sponsors are moving from gathering information to making decisions on which solutions to adopt.

      Policies evolve to support growing needs of plans and participants

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          Important Information

          1Total assets includes both mutual funds and CITs as of June 30, 2024 (Morningstar). Percentages in CITs represent CIT assets only. CITs are institutional investment vehicles designed for qualified retirement plans.

          2Sway Research, as of December 31, 2023.

          3T. Rowe Price 2024 Defined Contribution Consultant Study. This study included 48 questions and was conducted from January 12, 2024, through March 4, 2024. Responses are from 35 consulting and advisor firms with over 134,000 plan sponsor clients and more than $7.5 trillion in assets under administration.

          202501-4128950

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