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A Fed pause signals opportunity
During the rate pause period, bonds have tended to outperform cash.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. For illustrative purposes only.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 December 2024. Historical analysis calculates average performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bills: 1–3 Months TR Index (cash) in the 6 months leading up to the last Fed rate hike, between the last rate hike and first cut, and the 6 months after the first cut. Dates used for the last rate hike of a cycle: 31/01/1995, 31/03/1997, 16/05/2000, 29/06/2006, 12/19/2018. Dates used for the first rate cute are: 30/06/1995, 30/09/1998, 29/12/2000, 18/09/2007, 01/08/2019.
The Active Fixed Income Opportunity: Three potential scenarios and how to tackle them
Given the current global economic uncertainties, we think it makes sense to redeploy cash in terms of possible market scenarios rather than a single outcome.
Scenario 1 – Growth
Investment solution: High income
- This is our base-scenario: an environment of moderate growth and continued disinflation.
- Investors will be seeking high income and might fear missing out the bond market rally.
- This backdrop sets up an attractive environment for active security selection within credit markets.
Scenario 2 – Deterioration
Investment solution: High quality
- The aggressive tightening seen in 2022 and early 2023 may still have lagged impacts.
- Global central banks are forced to cut rates quicky, and investors will be seeking high quality investments.
- Bonds outperform money market funds.
Scenario 3 – Stagflation
Investment solution: Diversification
- Higher interest rate and prolonged stress on fundamentals.
- Inflation reaccelerates while growth stalls.
- Investors should consider diversifying strategies, that combine decorrelated performance behaviour, active interest rate management and security selection.
Risks: For fund specific risks please refer to the prospectus
General Fund Risks
Capital risk - the value of your investment will vary and is not guaranteed. It will be affected by changes in the exchange rate between the base currency of the fund and the currency in which you subscribed, if different. Counterparty risk - an entity with which the portfolio transacts may not meet its obligations to the fund. ESG and Sustainability risk - may result in a material negative impact on the value of investment and performance of the fund. Geographic concentration risk - to the extent that a fund invests a large portion of its assets in a particular geographic area, its performance will be more strongly affected by events within that area. Hedging risk - a fund's attempts to reduce or eliminate certain risks through hedging may not work as intended. Investment fund risk - investing in funds involves certain risks an investor would not face if investing in markets directly. Management risk - the investment manager or its designees may at times find their obligations to a fund to be in conflict with their obligations to other investment funds they manage (although in such cases, all funds will be dealt with equitably). Operational risk - operational failures could lead to disruptions of fund operations or financial losses.
Actionable insights
Our latest views on investors reallocating their cash.
T. Rowe Price Insights
Ahead of the Curve
Read the latest monthly insights from our Fixed Income CIO, Arif Husain
*Ongoing market uncertainty combined with sharp rises in interest rates prompted investors to stockpile a record US.$5.5 trillion into money market funds globally over the last 10 years (Broadridge GMI, December 2023).
202404-3547612