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2025 Global Market Outlook

Making the most of the 2025 transition

We believe the world is transitioning at a pace and scale rarely seen before. Not since the aftermath of the GFC have we observed such a breadth and richness of investment opportunities. Our CIOs and investment experts reveal what key economic and investment themes they believe will shape markets in 2025 and where they are seeing the greatest potential for upside.  


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    Our 2025 global market outlook helps you navigate the winding road to normalization and explores the market implications.

    The rate cutting cycle has begun, but global central banks will continue to be data dependent.

    We anticipate a normalization if policy at a more gradual pace relative to market pricing.

    Growth is moderating but remains resilient. And although good progress has been made on inflation, it's not over until it's over and is likely to remain volatile.

    Labour markets are easing and are a key area to watch.

    Key risks include elevated geopolitical tensions, slowing growth, sticky inflation, and monetary policy missteps.

    As we navigate this new equilibrium, our portfolio construction themes argue for continued diversification across stocks, fixed income and real assets.

    Bond yields have been on a roller coaster ride as markets preempted policy shifts.

    Current market pricing implies upside risk to yields.

    Cash yields remain attractive, but longer duration fixed income is vulnerable.

    Although credit spreads are tight, all in yields look attractive.

    High yield bonds, bank loans and emerging market bonds present income opportunities.

    Equity markets have been dominated by a handful of stocks.

    We're likely past the first innings of the AI infrastructure build out. However, the AI wave isn't over. It's evolving and stock selection will be critical.

    We're excited about a golden age for healthcare amid radical innovation such as GLP-1 drugs and robotic surgery.

    As economic growth broadens, we're encouraged by earnings broadening across both sectors and regions.

    Diversifying into areas with valuation support and robust fundamentals such as value and small cap stocks seems prudent.

    We see select opportunities in underappreciated sectors such as energy, financials and industrials.

    2025 is shaping up to be a dynamic year. An active approach focused on fundamentals will be key.

    Video summary

    Take two minutes with Ritu

    Capital Markets investment specialist Ritu Vohora provides a snapshot of the key factors influencing global markets and what that means for investors. 

    Key factors that shaped our 2025 outlook

    Manufacturing-led growth is set for a comeback

    The global economy in 2025 is poised for a manufacturing-led recovery, supported by rate cuts from central banks like the ECB. Despite a cautious start due to China's economic uncertainties, Europe might see growth from easing monetary policies and potentially resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Structural shifts in manufacturing bases and a surge in infrastructure spending signal robust, yet uneven, global economic growth. 

    More on the Global Economy Watch the Full Webinar

    Ritu's back with the full webinar

    Ritu Vohora hosts the 2025 global market outlook with the Head of Global Fixed Income and CIO Arif Husain, Chief U.S Economist Blerina Uruçi, Head of International Equity and CIO Justin Thomson, Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO Sébastian Page, and Head of T. Rowe Price Investment Management Stephon Jackson. 

    Watch the Full Webinar

    The Angle Podcast: Breaking down the GMO

    PODCAST
    Episode 1 - Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025

    Our experts discuss the macroeconomic outlook for 2025. They examine global fiscal and monetary policy, what impact the Trump presidency could have on the global economy, and potential developments in China.

    Listen Here
    PODCAST
    Episode 2 - Factors impacting financial markets

    We take a deeper dive into the factors impacting financial markets as we consider the outlook for corporate earnings, and whether we will continue to see a broadening of equity markets into 2025.

    Listen Here
    PODCAST
    Episode 3 - Implications for investors

    Here’s where we bring everything together to consider the potential implications for financial markets. Where do we see the greatest potential and where are the areas of concern?

    Listen Here

    Additional insights

    By  Peter J. Bates
    By  Kenneth A. Orchard
    By  Paul Greene
    By  Gilad Fortgang, Blerina Uruçi, Timothy C. Murray

     

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