personal finance   |  april 4, 2025

Four steps that can help you navigate 2025's market downturn due to tariff turbulence

By focusing on long-term goals, investors can achieve better results despite economic uncertainty.

 

Key Insights

  • The recent increase in tariffs has created unprecedented uncertainty that is impacting both businesses and consumers.

  • The implications of these tariffs could be significant, slowing economic growth and causing prices to rise.

  • As markets attempt to adjust to this increased level of unpredictability, we are keeping an eye out for potential opportunities that may arise from the disruption while continuing to help our clients power through economic volatility.

This year, tariffs have emerged as a significant wild card for global markets, creating unprecedented uncertainty that is impacting both businesses and consumers. This uncertainty is making it difficult for businesses to plan their spending and hiring, while consumers are pulling back on their spending. As a result, both consumer and corporate confidence have been dampened, fueling market volatility.

Though it is easier said than done, we encourage investors to remember that what’s in the headlines today doesn’t necessarily reflect the long-term outcomes you will achieve through a disciplined and well-diversified portfolio strategy.

What’s happening

The announcements on April 2 ("Liberation Day") provided some clarification, but the tariffs are higher and wider ranging than many people expected. These moves will push the average effective U.S. tariff to 20%–25%, a significant increase from 2.3% in 2024. This has led to a drop in stock prices and a rally in "safe haven" assets.

Currently, the U.S. government is sticking to its stance on tariffs, and it might take a while to finalize any deals with other countries. The implications of these tariffs could be significant, raising economic concerns and, likely, consumer prices. Tariffs act as a tax on consumers, reducing disposable income and spending. The uncertainty can also negatively impact business investment and activity, despite the intent of the policy to boost U.S. manufacturing.   As a result, investors should expect that market volatility could continue.

What we’re doing

Our portfolio management team actively monitors the markets and economy and routinely makes tactical and other changes to manage risk and pursue opportunities. We seek to help you emerge stronger from any market downturn whether invested through our asset allocation products or enrolled in our advisory services.

T. Rowe Price U.S. equity funds1 have consistently outperformed their respective benchmarks during both up and down markets. This performance is attributed to our rigorous research, prudent risk management, and deep experience in navigating market cycles.

What you can do

It’s difficult to predict short-term market movements, and there are potential risks associated with frequently altering investment strategies based on market fluctuations. That’s why it’s important to align your asset allocation with your time horizon and goals, rather than reacting emotionally to market changes.

Here are four key ways investors can help protect their investment portfolios during periods of stock market volatility. 

  • Maintain a long-term perspective: Focus on long-term goals and remember that although the cause and duration of volatility varies, recoveries do eventually follow.

  • Confirm your asset allocation: Evaluate your asset allocation to ensure it is still consistent with your objectives and takes the appropriate level of investment risk.   If you do make changes during a volatile period, try to keep them small, rather than taking bold steps that could have a significant negative long-term impact on your plan.

  • Adjust saving and spending: Monitor and adjust your saving and spending habits to mitigate the impact of market downturns. Prioritizing your spending goals as part of a broader financial plan can help you make these important decisions.

  • Review your cash contingency: Holding a cash reserve can provide a safety net during market volatility, helping investors avoid making impulsive decisions.

To weather volatility over the long term, it’s important to have a financial plan and a diversified portfolio in place. If you don’t, it may benefit you to work with a financial professional to build a plan with your unique goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon in mind.

There are benefits to staying invested in equities, even during volatile times, due to the long-term growth potential of stocks. By focusing on your long-term goals and leveraging our expertise, we’ll continue to help you power through economic uncertainty.

Call 1-800-225-5132 to request a prospectus or summary prospectus; each includes investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses, and other information you should read and consider carefully before investing.

1Results based on an analysis of T. Rowe Price’s active, diversified U.S. equity mutual funds (oldest share class) during 5-year monthly rolling periods from 12/31/1995 to 12/31/2024. Index, sector, specialized, and institutional clones of our retail funds were excluded. Of T. Rowe Price’s 25 diversified U.S. equity funds, 18 met the criteria for the analysis and are represented within. One of the 18 funds, the Capital Appreciation Fund, also has the ability to invest in fixed income assets but is primarily an equity portfolio and benchmarked to the S&P 500 Index. The funds included in the analysis represented over 75% of total U.S. equity assets in the domestic and global equity mutual funds advised by the firm as of 12/31/24. Results for other time periods will differ. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

Important Information

This material is provided for general and educational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice. This material does not provide recommendations concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types; it is not individualized to the needs of any specific investor and is not intended to suggest that any particular investment action is appropriate for you.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risks: All investments are subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal.  Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile than stocks of large, well-established companies. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.

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