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 2023 Midyear Market Outlook

Finding the Signal Through the Noise

The global economy avoided recession in the first half. As investors move into the second half of 2023, distinguishing the signal from the noise could be especially critical as higher interest rates and tighter liquidity are fully felt.

Three Themes to Watch in 2023

THEME 1

Economic Resilience Tested

We believe it is reasonable to be reluctantly bearish on financial markets for the balance of 2023. Concerns remain centered on inflation, policy, and recession – but mixed data complicates the outlook.

THEME 2

Bonds Are Back?

The sharp rise in bond yields since early 2022 has improved return potential in many fixed income sectors. But an aggressive portfolio shift into longer‑term bonds still appears premature.

THEME 3

A Focus on Earnings

Equity markets have delivered strong gains in the first half of 2023, however a focus on valuations and earnings will be important in the second half, amid a potential growth shock. 

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Important Information

This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction. 

This material is only for investment professionals that are eligible to access the T. Rowe Price Asia Regional Institutional Website. Not for further distribution.

202306-2960355

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T. Rowe Price ("TRP") claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. T. Rowe Price has been independently verified for the 27-year period ended June 30, 2023, by KPMG LLP. The verification report is available upon request. A firm that claims compliance with the GIPS standards must establish policies and procedures for complying with all the applicable requirements of the GIPS standards. Verification provides assurance on whether the firm’s policies and procedures related to composite and pooled fund maintenance, as well as the calculation, presentation, and distribution of performance, have been designed in compliance with the GIPS standards and have been implemented on a firm-wide basis. Verification does not provide assurance on the accuracy of any specific performance report.

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