November 2022 / VIDEO
Forecasting Oil Prices: Six Vital Indicators
We examine short-term oil data that are part of the price cycle and longer-term signals that drive the structural price
Key insights
- It is important to examine both short-term oil market data that inform cyclical price changes and longer-term indicators that drive the more structural price.
- There are times when short-term factors drive everything in the oil market, and there are times when only the long-term factors seem to matter.
- The overarching goal when analyzing the oil market is to be secularly aware but not cyclically blind, and also the reverse.
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Elliot Shue is a corporate credit analyst in the Fixed Income Division. He is a member of the Investment Advisory Committee for the Corporate Income Fund and a member of the Money Market Credit Policy Committee. Elliot also is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
