Overview
We are pleased to share our outlook for global economies and markets for the second half of 2024. In the six months since we published our 2024 Global Market Outlook, the market environment has changed in many ways. Consensus expectations for central bank policy, in particular, are markedly different. Pricing on interest rate futures reflect expectations for far fewer interest rate cuts from global central banks than in December 2023.
Equity and fixed income markets are readjusting accordingly. The European Central Bank kicked off the cycle of lowering rates by the major developed market central banks at its June policy meeting. But the path and magnitude of easing by the ECB and others is murky. This outlook details the factors shaping that path for the Fed and other major central banks.
For the global economy, we anticipate broadening growth and resurgent inflation. We expect a broadening in U.S. equity market performance and identify attractive value in some international stock markets. Investors seeking to move out of cash may find attractive opportunities in shorter-term bonds, as well as equities.
Most importantly, we believe the ongoing transition from the low-rate post-GFC environment to one characterized by structurally higher interest rates will present favorable conditions for active managers to outperform.
